Explanatory Factors of Costa Rican Voting Abroad in Presidential Elections (2014–2022)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29105/rpgyc11.22-361Keywords:
Abstentionism, Costa Rica, Electoral Participation, External Voting, Linear RegressionAbstract
The objective of this article is to identify the factors that influence electoral participation among Costa Rican citizens residing abroad during the national elections of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Although external voting has been permitted since 2014, academic research that systematically and comparatively analyzes the explanatory elements of this behavior at the national level remains scarce. To address this gap, a linear regression model was applied using aggregated data by country of residence and election year (n = 211 observations), with the electoral participation rate reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal as the dependent variable. Independent variables included structural indicators of the host country (GDP per capita and Gini Index), institutional and attitudinal factors related to the country of origin (perception of representative government), characteristics of the electoral process (first or second round), and temporal controls. The results reveal that electoral participation decreases in contexts of higher economic inequality, in countries with greater equity in social rights, and over successive elections (2018 and 2022). In contrast, participation increases in countries with stronger economic conditions, when a positive perception of representative government is expressed, and during the first round of elections. The study concludes that transnational electoral participation is shaped by a combination of structural and contextual factors, underscoring the complexity of the phenomenon and the need for further research within the field of electoral behavior.
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